Wednesday, July 31, 2013

How to Bet College Football

1. Treat this like a business...Don't bet on a game just to have action. Only bet on games you feel good about. (Corollary: don't bet on too many games at the same time. Too many games means risking a push, which means you lose the juice).
2. Don't ever play a parlay or teaser. These are in the books favor: even if you win a couple, over time the payout will be negative. Too many players use parlays to rescue bad days. Also hitting parlays early in your career can give you the wrong impression about their true odds since the ROI is negative over the long haul.
3. Generally bet around the same amount on each play. You can do this as a percentage of your balance (5%) instead of a set sum. Using percentages, as your bankroll goes down, so do your wagers. Another way to calculate bet size is to use the Kelly Criterion to calculate bet size.
 4. A good rule of thumb is if you like the favorite or over then play it early in the week and if you like the dog or under, wait til right before game time to place the bet.
5. Take advantage of books like who give you +juice like +105. Heck placing those bets it is like you are the bookie.
6. Don't buy any points. Fact: the spread only comes into play 17% of the time in the NFL (data applies if the spread is not double digits). The juice you pay on losses can never be made up if you buy points regularily. It may save you from time to time but over time this will crush you. (selling points can actually be profitable if done judiciously. is a great place to sell points).
7. Know where the action is. This doesn't mean you cant play public plays but try to avoid them as much as possible.
8. Do NOT trust anyone, but listen to everyone. 85% of the people who wager are losers. A lot of information you are going to see in here, and other sites like this one, is going to be incorrect. Many systems will be discussed. The reason why you should read everything is because someone may have that one idea, or thought, that can change your mind. There could be that one angle or stat that you were not aware of that could change your mind. Most of the time, it will take you off of a wager, but occasionally, it may help you choose a team to wager on.
9. Sometimes the best wager is NO wager at all. Passing on a game guarantees that you will not lose. If you are not sure about a game, pass. If you hit 56% of your wagers you are doing well, so why gamble on something you are not sure about?

 Playing underdogs versus the Money Line: One strategy is playing all underdogs on the ML (ML= Money Line. You are betting the outright straight up winner without regard to point spread). The betting strategy is like this: you play the spread for the favorite when the line is 7 or greater and then put a small fraction of that bet on the ML. Since it's a small % of your bet that you're losing on the ML versus winning on the spread, it isn't too bad. And then your ML wins are kind of like insurance.
most of the guys who play ML...they play the ML faves which is dumb...playing ML faves is definitely a losing proposition over time. For college football, playing ML dogs is the way to go especially if the line is low like 6 or less...better odds than playing the spread and with so many games the lines are looser.
It's a good idea to always play the money line on underdogs. That way you can collect on the + money (underdogs are given for example as +200 - bet 100 to win 200). Better to collect the juice than pay it. Personal sidenote: It's more often that I see underdogs winning in the NFL than in college. Also, if a top 25 team is an underdog against an unranked team, always bet against the ranked team. Consider their top 25 ranking an impediment against the line being even more against them than it already is.
Good Sports Books for Betting Underdogs  5Dimes, and are great books for playing underdogs. Also take note of razor sharp books like Pinnacle Sportsbook. They have opinions and are usually right - watch for the "PINNY Lean" as discussed here:

 Information culled from Also heed the advice of sharp posters like trentmoney and sites like